I heard someone earlier this week say that the housing market has gone from a slow crawl to a brisk walk. I think that is the perfect metaphor to explain the recent changes in the real estate market. The market is coming back. It’s not roaring, but it’s coming back.
This week, according to Reuters.com, U.S. mortgage applications jumped as record low interest rates spurred a surge in demand for home refinancing loans. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, increased 32.2 percent to 1,159.4 for the week ended March 20. Refinancing accounted for 78.5 percent of all applications.
Furthermore, interest rates on mortgages fell after the Federal Reserve last week said it would buy Treasury securities for the first time in more than four decades as well as more than double its planned purchases of mortgage-related securities. Reuters.com reported that “Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.63 percent, down 0.26 percentage point from the previous week, reaching a record low….Interest rates were well below year-ago levels of 5.74 percent.”
Meanwhile, according to Realty Times, housing starts took a surprise jump of 22 percent in February over January's depressed levels. Most of the increase was attributable to apartments and condominiums, but single family starts were up by one percentage point, and new home permits were up by 11 percent, after months of sharp declines.
Existing home sales are also seeing some good trends. NAR reported this week that sales activity for single family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops rose 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million units in February from a pace of 4.49 million units in January.
The West is leading much of the nation’s recovery, with California leading the charge. Our median listing price is beginning to rise for the first time in three years. Existing home sales in the West increased 2.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.2 million in February and remain 30.4 percent higher than a year ago.
Last week I recommended that you watch Coldwell Banker president and CEO, Jim Gillespie on CNBC’s “Roadmap to Rebound” which focused on the state of the housing market. If you missed it, Gillespie stated that “the government could do a lot more than they are already doing in order to get the real estate market moving again.” Congressmen and economists continually say that in order to get the economy going, we need to first get real estate going. Gillespie believes that two key changes are needed in order to get the economy moving, and the first item that needs to be addressed is to set a fixed-rate mortgage. “Lowering the interest rate to 4% to 4.5% for 12 months is one way to get the inventory moving.” Along with setting a fixed-rate mortgage, increasing the tax credit to $15,000 and including all buyers of primary residences will help move buyers along and get the market to shift.
Gillespie also stated that the demand side needs to be looked at closely, because once we start to burn off the inventory that we currently have, prices will begin to stabilize and go up again, which will help those in distressed situations. “Fifty-five percent of loan modifications have failed after six months because jobs are not being created and homeowners are losing the jobs they have,” says Gillespie. “In order to create jobs, we need to create demand, both of which will get the housing market and economy moving.”
I for one appreciate seeing our leadership team speaking out on our behalf, serving as the visionaries for our industry. It’s enlightening and certainly makes me proud.
Now, let’s take a look at this week in local real estate:
- Dixon-Davis—The market continues to be the same. Listing inventory is down. Our Agents are going to do some listing marketing in our area. Buyer activity continues to be busy and time consuming.
- Elk Grove-Laguna—Open home traffic has a good trend right now. The traffic counts continue to be consistently in the double digit range. We had one Agent who had 43 people through one open house. The bulk of our business is in REOs/short sales and what a difference a year makes. Approvals—within a couple of weeks in many cases. We continue to see a dramatic increase in buyer activity. Inventory levels are the lowest they have been in the last three years. Our closes average sales price increased for the first time in two plus years.
- Folsom—We’re seeing great closings and strong open escrows! Our listings are still slow coming in but lots of Agents are working buyers and not just the low end. We had five ratified offers this week and 11 closings. We had some good luxury activity this week. One listing of $1,500,000, one sale of $1,300,000 and one recording of $650,000. It was a good week!
- Roseville/Granite Bay—We have steady inventory on both ends including two multiple offers and nine ratified offers as well as seven opens with various traffic levels. The buyers are still reluctant and sellers are getting squeezed on equity and repairs. The Agents are being very positive and are staying with our motto “look for opportunities.”
- Sacramento—Our Sacramento Metro office reports that sales have increased in our core areas this month. We have very few REOs but short sale activity is up in the office. Activity level in our luxury market is also up. We had one $900,000 sale and one listing for $1.8 million. Our Sacramento Sierra Oaks office reported 23 ratified offers this week. It seems that in the price range of under $100,000 there are a ton of multiple offers. Open house traffic has been very busy. The inventory in this market is very low.
- Tahoe/Truckee Region—The listing inventory for the Tahoe-Truckee market had an increase of 17 new land/lot listings while the residential listings increased by three properties. To date, there are 1,385 residential properties and 605 lots/land listed for sale. Of the active listings, there are 104 properties listed as short sales, (5.2%) and 51 properties listed as REO, (2.6%). The median price for the active short sale properties is $384,950 and for the REO properties it is $394,900. Based on the current inventory and sales year to date the market has roughly 16-months of inventory available. On a year to date basis there have been 131 properties sold in the market as compared to 199 for the same period in 2008 which is 34.2% reduction in sales. For the week of March 16th through 22nd, there were nine properties sold which is a slight decrease from the week prior. All but three of the properties sold last week were in the Tahoe Donner area where most of the sales activity is occurring. The North Lake Tahoe areas remain slow. We held nine open houses over the past weekend with a fair amount of activity but nothing significant. There was a snow storm over the weekend which may have further hampered activity. A fair number of Agents reported favorable buyer showings for higher priced properties $900,000 and higher. We had six offers accepted this past week. It is apparent that buyer interest and activity is picking up as there are continued great values in the market. Market comments: Great closings and strong open escrows! Our listings are still slow coming in but lots of agents are working with buyers and not just the low end!
After a week of positive indicators, my best advice is for buyers to get out there. There are some fantastic deals out there right now and as more people begin to realize it, competition will come back and begin to drive activity. You know what they say about the early bird!
Until next time,
Make it a great one,
Bob Bronswick
